Ordinary Gweilo

Phil and others have commented on this news story, but I have ignored it so far. A reader has asked for my comments, so here goes. Being lazy, I will quote from his email.

Xiao Weiyun, one of the Chinese legal experts who was involved in drafting the Basic Law for Hong Kong has said that full democracy in Hong Kong probably won’t happen until around 2037 to 2047.

He states that universal suffrage is the ultimate objective for the 50 years after the establishment of the SAR in 1997.

Although his statements are somewhat discouraging for the pro democracy people, to me this sounds like the SAR or at least an SAR-like government and legal system will continue to exist after 2047 if the establishment of full democracy is to be setup as late as 2037 to 2047.

I agree that this seems a reasonable conclusion to draw. I had thought that the objective of the PRC government was that by 2047 there would be no need for “One Country, Two Systems”, but clearly that would only be possible if the rest of China had made significant progress and become more like Hong Kong. If not then it would presumably be necessary to carry on with the present arrangements. Obviously it would make no sense to have an elected CE for the first time in 2042 if the post was going to disappear in 2047.

However, it may be more accurate to view these statements as being about lowering expectations. If the HK government task force eventually recommends a plan for electing the Chief Executive that is more gradual than full democracy in 2007, the response may now be more positive than would otherwise have been the case. If people in Hong Kong complain, the authorities can say that no decisions have been made and the government’s position hasn’t changed. There’s a long way to go before this is resolved!