Ordinary Gweilo

After the deaths of two young children from influenza in Hong Kong at the start of this month, the government instructed all primary schools and kindergartens to close.  An over-reaction, obviously, but it was only a few days till most schools started their Easter holidays, so it didn’t do much harm.  

Since then there has been no evidence that this current flu outbreak is anything out of the ordinary, so logically schools should re-open as normal after Easter. 

However, it seems that the government hasn’t yet made a decision, and it is possible that they will be instructed to stay closed.

So I was interested to find a review (No good at risk – The Economist) of a new book (Risk: The Science and Politics of Fear by Dan Gardner) that addresses the irrational way these risks are assessed:

THE official death toll from the September 11th terrorist attacks in 2001 was 2,974. But in 2002 America’s death toll on the roads grew by more than 1,500—casualties of the terrorism-inspired exodus from safe aeroplanes to dangerous motor cars. A swan washes up on a British shore, dead from bird flu, and the press panics, while the 3,000 people who die every year on the country’s roads (13 times the number of people who have ever died from bird flu) go largely unremarked.

Ordinary influenza kills quite significant numbers of people every year, and of course the very young, very old, and chronically ill are much more vulnerable.  The risks can be reduced by taking simple precautions, but does it make any sense to close all schools during the flu season?  Clearly not.