Ordinary Gweilo

The MTRC is pressing the government to support the planned West and South Island lines. They are asking the government to grant them property development rights at one of the planned stations, which will provide some of the cash they need, but they also want HK$6bn from the government.

The MTRC is a strange organization – Jake van der Kamp described it as a property company that also runs trains. The KCRC is more of a conventional railway operator, which explains why it was the MTRC that was privatised and why there are still doubts about the plan to merge the two organizations.

The KCRC is having a few problems with West Rail, announcing a reduced profit forecast, whilst taxi drivers and minibus operators have concerns regarding the planned Sha Tin – Central line.

What struck me was that one of reasons the KCR gave for the drop in profits (as reported in the SCMP at least) was competition from buses, whilst on the other hand we have other transport operators worried that they would suffer if another KCR line was built. As ever, we find the different operators blaming each other for their problems.

Their first problem is that cross-border buses offer a cheaper and sometimes more convenient alternative to travelling to Lo Wu on the KCR. The strategy the KCRC have followed for many years is to charge a much higher fare for the short journey from Sheung Shui to the border crossing at Lo Wu than for any other journey. Their logic is that they have a monopoly and so they can charge whatever they like (as well as higher fares, the discount offers do not apply if you travel to Lo Wu). This means that the cross-border passengers subsidise ‘domestic’ passengers. At some point they may have to revise this policy, and increase their ordinary fares.

Their second problem is that passenger numbers on West Rail are below expectations. They are blaming this on the government for breaking a promise to cut back on bus routes that compete with West Rail, and also on inaccurate government projections of population growth in the western New Territories.

The first point, as with the complaints from minibus and taxi operators, highlights the slightly surreal mix of government regulation and free enterprise that come into play with regard to public transport. The bus and minibus companies endeavour to make profits operating routes that are designated by the government and over which they don’t have much control. Even fares are controlled, I think. So, of course, the companies involved can always blame the government if they run into trouble – as has happened here. Jake van der Kamp (writing in the SCMP after the KCRC warned of a drop in profits) seemed to believe that they have a case:

It is probably true that the KCRC made mistakes of its own in building West Rail, but the biggest mistake by far was the government’s. It is not [KCRC chairman] Mr Tien who should now shoulder the blame, but his bosses.

The other issue here is whether it is a desirable objective of government policy to shift traffic off the roads and on to the rails. I would argue that it is, and I believe it is the stated policy of the Hong Kong government – and there are plenty of projects that bear witness to this (including West Rail, the Tseung Kwan O extension to the MTR, the East Rail extensions to Tsim Sha Tsui and Ma On Shan, and the planned lines from Sha Tin – Central and the West & South Island MTR lines). However, the government is also building new roads and hence providing greater competition for these new lines, which suggests they really don’t quite know what they want. Or perhaps that they are reluctant to upset the pro-roads lobby (supported by big business here, as in most other countries).

In the UK, a number of new tram and light rail systems have been built recently (in Manchester, Croydon, Sheffield, Birmingham and Nottingham) and up to 25 more are planned. I read recently that a new tram system has just started operating in the French city of Bordeaux, whilst Athens hope to open their system in June, and other European cities (including Cologne-Bonn) have well-established systems.

Most light rail and tram systems operate as feeder services to mainline train services, and this seems to me to be the perfect setup. For example, the KCR Light Rail system in the north western New Territories is now linked up to KCR West Rail, and so provides a fast and convenient way to get to and from Kowloon (and when they extend West Rail to Tsim Sha Tsui and Hung Hom it will be even better).

As a passenger, I certainly prefer trams to buses (well, modern trams – not the ones on Hong Kong island, which are slower and less comfortable than buses), but the capital cost of such systems are very high. In the UK, this is creating problems for some of the companies who are operating trams under the government’s madcap PFI initiative. If bus and tram systems are in competition, it is quite easy for bus operators to undercut tram fares. Of course, if the company goes bankrupt then the network will still be there and whoever takes it over will be able to operate without the debts, but it will then make it difficult to justify building other networks.

Studies show that there are many people who would never think of travelling by bus, but who are quite happy to use trams. In Britain, a leading bus operator is introducing new buses disguised as trams “in the hope of attracting affluent passengers who consider themselves too posh for buses” (according to The Guardian). To me, the advantages of trams are that they run to a timetable (normally more frequently than buses), you know how long you will have to wait for the next one, and they are not subject to delays caused by traffic jams. The fact that they are a different shape and run on rails is incidental, so if First Bus can offer most of the benefits of a tram in a vehicle that runs on the road, then I imagine it will be successful. If not, I don’t think people will be fooled.

Going back to the proposed Sha Tin – Central line, one of the concerns expressed was that people may lose their jobs if the line is built. Yes, but the new rail lines will create jobs, and it would be surprising if it did not also mean some other people losing their jobs. As Jake van der Kamp is fond of pointing out, if the government’s only objective was to create jobs, they could build a tunnel from Hong Kong to Singapore or any other white elephant project you can imagine. Instead they are proposing a rail line that will serve areas in Kowloon that have no MTR or KCR service, and which will also ease congestion on cross-harbour routes. That must be a good thing, surely. We just have to hope that the KCRC can afford to build the line!

As for the West & South Island lines, they must surely be a better option than building Route 7. With the economy on the up and receipts from land sales better than expected, surely we can afford it.