The big non-event of today was the lack of problems at the Cross-Harbour Tunnel.  There were widespread predictions of congestion as drivers responded to Sunday’s increase in tolls at the Eastern Harbour Crossing by changing their journeys.   In fact, they seem to have responded by leaving their cars at home, so there were no major problems. This is quite a common phenomenon – the more fuss and advance warning there is, the less likely it is that there will be the severe problem that we are warned about.  I remember this happening with some roadworks on the M1 motorway in the UK a while back – there were weeks of warnings about serious problems and then when the work started there were hardly any delays.   

The question now is whether the lack of problems today will tempt more drivers back on to the roads tomorrow. 

I have been amazed by the amount of publicity there has been about this problem.  Today I was midly amused by a large banner advising motorists to "Watch out for radio traffic announcements".  My advice is to watch out for minibuses and lorries and not stare at the radio for too long, but what do I know?

The biggest mystery is why this fairly small increase should cause private motorists so much concern.  Running a car in Hong Kong is not cheap – not so much in the purchase price as in the running costs (insurance, annual car tax, petrol and parking) – so paying an extra HK$20 a day is hardly significant.  If I had a car and needed to cross the harbour I thinkI’d be happy to pay extra to save some time spent in a traffic jam.

Fumier read the same newspaper article that I noticed over the weekend, with a quote from Professor Lui Ting-ming at the University of Science & Technology in Clear Water Bay saying that he will now be using a taxi and the MTR if he has to go to Central.  Fumier makes fun of him for forgetting the cost of depreciation and not taking account of the extra five minutes the journey takes by public transport.  The latter point was actually addressed by the good professor, who explained that he could make notes whilst in a taxi or on the MTR, but not whilst driving, but Fumier seems to have rather naughtily overlooked that. 

However, I have to agree that if the professor was being logical he would have stopped driving his car to Central a long time ago, since public transport was already much cheaper even before this latest increase in tunnel tolls.  On the other hand, if this increase has prompted a few people to think about whether to use their cars then it could have a very positive effect (though not, perhaps, for the operators of the tunnel).

Actually, it’s a point that I always make if people ask me whether I own a car.  Using a combination of taxis and public transport is much cheaper and only slightly less convenient than driving (the big gain being that you don’t spend time parking your car and queuing up to pay).  If you’re in a rush or are very tired, take a taxi; otherwise use public transport.         

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7 responses to “Tunnel Vision”

  1. fumier avatar

    “Rather naughty” – another one for the sidebar: thanks.
    Yes, I did omit to mention the note-taking, but I did mention that the prof was able to think on the train about what to say at the meeting ahead, which he was apparently unable to do if he was driving, with the presumed result that (if he drove) he arrived at the meeting without anything to say, which would render the whole exercise an even bigger waste of taxpayers’ funds.

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  2. fumier avatar

    When I look again, I see that I was even naughtier and did not make it very clear that the prof thinks on the train but not in the car. I may need to clarify that.

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  3. Simon World avatar

    Tunnels and the Reds at SCMP

    After days of eager anticipation, Hong Kong’s media were disappointed by the world’s smartest people avoiding the predicted traffic chaos of the Cross-Harbour tunnel. But there was a promise of chaos to come: the apparent lull was due to the fact that …

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  4. Chris avatar

    I don’t have the newspaper in front of me, but I believe the prof’s problem was not that he couldn’t think whilst he was in his car but that he would forget it all. Hence the advantage of being able to take notes whilst in a taxi or on the MTR. However, he could also buy himself a small voice recorder or call his secretary and dictate notes. Or bring his secretary along. Or make notes whilst stopped at traffic lights.
    [Perhaps he thought about depreciation and wear and tear but forget to make a note of it.]

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  5. fumier avatar

    I have the article with me, and you’re right. Or, at least, he says that “when [he goes] to Central” he usually “has to think” about what to say, though he doesn’t actually say whether he can or cannot, or does or does not, think in his car.
    Certainly, I think that the other options you offer the prof are all very sensible, and I hope he takes at least one of them up. I have a digital voice-recorder which I don’t use and which I would be happy to give him if he goes for that option.
    I am slightly worried by his apparent propensity to forget anything he has not written down, but perhaps the archetypal absent-minded professor is a reality after all.

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  6. Chris avatar

    I’d thought of something witty to say, but I’ve forgotten what it was.

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  7. wilson ng avatar

    I agree very well on this very astute observation.
    “a common phenomenon – the more fuss and advance warning there is, the less likely it is that there will be the severe problem that we are warned about. ”
    Remember y2k?

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